….riporto integralmente una analisi di un Gestore sul perchè ritiene….
che sia arrivata la resa dei conti negli USA sul mercato azionario.
“As much as it may seem premature or wrong, I feel the markets are starting to shift risks away from the China/US tariff dispute and now are starting to really get more concerned with earnings growth slowing. My October earnings season theme was “Guidance Cut October” and it was spot on. Further proof is how the Apple supply chain is seeing large iPhone component cuts and analysts are seeing poor sell through and increasing inventories. And today Home Depot reported good numbers but underneath analysts spotted slowing growth and tax cuts benefits helping them make numbers. In the coming quarters it only will get more difficult with a high bar with year over year comps. The real tell is how the market has faded off the highs with the very positive news of the US and China conducting talks with Mnuchin and Liu. These are high level talks and the market seems to not respond like it has as other times.
My derivitive traders, who have the best pulse on the markets ie: they know where all the bodies are buried. They see risk of CTA’s needing to sell $19 billion market exposure under S&P 2732 and as I write the S&P is there now. Traders continue want to buy this market but are getting run over as there is zero follow through. I sense real selling will happen under 2700. I remain quite cautious and recommend tight stops and a decent sized cash position.”